A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
